RBA Gov Lowe Speaks – Monday 22nd June 9:00 am
With Australia slowly recovering from the effects of COVID-19 and the removal of most restrictions, hints about the future of monetary policy in Australia would likely affect the strength of the AUD. Governor Philip Lowe’s speech may provide some clues that could lead to AUD strengthening.
German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI – Tuesday 23rd June 5:30 pm
Flash PMI values capture the economic conditions and provide an indication of the state of the manufacturing and services sectors. Flash manufacturing PMI is expected to expand from 36.6 to 41.5 and flash services PMI is forecasted to increase from 32.6 to 41.7. This is an indication of the economic recovery of the Eurozone meaning that a bullish EUR is expected if data is better than expected and bearish if data disappoints these estimates.
NZ Official Cash Rate & RBNZ Rate Statement – Wednesday June 24th 12:00pm
The NZ official cash rate is forecasted to stay at the same rate at 0.25%. A stabilising cash rate indicates economic recovery and may lead to a bullish NZD and AUD.
Fed Officials Increasingly Pessimistic on US Economic Recovery
Positive economic data such as the better than expected job data and retail sales data had fueled hopes that the US economy could bounce back more quickly than expected. But according to Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve Randal Quarles, “There has probably never been more uncertainty about economic outlook”. Powell warns that millions of people will likely still be unemployed even as the economy is on the path of recovery. Moving forward the Fed will perform stress tests on banks in order to determine the capital requirements that their banks must keep.
The MACD line has recently crossed the signal line and RSI has also recently begun descent from the overbought region. I speculate that there should be enough downwards momentum left to bring the New Zealand Dollar back to the 200 MA level of 0.63182.