MARKET MOVERS
Wendy Le
ECB President Lagarde Speaks (EU)
Monday 8th June 11:45 pm
The European Central Bank tends to drop subtle hints about future monetary policy or interest rate changes during the speeches. With the EU slowly recovering from the coronavirus, any indication of monetary policy stabilizing ensure bullish continuance for the Euro.
CPI m/m (US)
Wednesday 10th June 10:30 pm
Inflation is forecasted to increase from -0.4% to 0%. This means that the central bank may keep interest rates unchanged to reach the targeted inflation rate of 2%. However, an interest rate cut would shock the market resulting in a significant drop in the USD. This is unlikely to happen and the USD is expected to continue its rally.
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (US)
Saturday 13th June 12:00 am
The Prelim U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment is currently at 72.3 and is forecasted to be 74-75. A higher than expected reading on the 13th June will result in bullish USD, with the market recovering from the pandemic faster than expected, consumer sentiment may beat expectation.
MAJOR NEWS
Positive US Jobs Data Stuns Market
Victor Shen
Nonfarm payroll rose by 2.5 million and the jobless rate fell to 13.3% from 14.7%. Employment rose sharply in leisure, hospitality, construction, education, health services, and retail trade, while jobs in the government sector continued its decline. This unexpected rise could be attributed to easing quarantine restrictions as well as small businesses receiving funding from the US government’s forgivable loan scheme in exchange for retaining workers. However, the sheer positivity of this data amidst the ongoing coronavirus crisis should leave readers slightly skeptical that this data is accurate. The Labour department themselves have been very upfront about admitting limitations in data gathering over the past two months.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
USD/JPY
Victor Shen
The pair has reached a historic resistance line of 109.607 which has been tested 9 times in the last 7 months. RSI and MACD are also indicating that this pair is approaching overbought conditions and may be due for a pullback soon. Should a pullback occur, we could see the pair rebound towards the historic support and 200 SMA levels of 108.437.
ANALYST OUTLOOK
Victor Shen
BEng (Hons)/Com
EURUSD – Bearish outlook
The 8 day rally induced by a weak dollar and a more positive investor outlook on the recovery of Europe’s economy seems to be nearing an end. A pull back or reversal is likely imminent, driven by strong US job data which may strengthen USD. This is supported by RSI indicating overbought conditions and MACD indicating upward momentum may be waning. We could see this pair drop to previous resistance levels of 1.11627, which has been tested 8 times in the last 7 months.
Wendy Le
BCom/EconAUDUSD – Bearish Outlook
The AUDUSD pair is currently in overbought conditions according to the RSI and is due for a pullback. The federal funds rate is also expected to remain unchanged meaning that the USD will continue rallying. The currency pair is also reaching the 0.70332 resistance level and there will likely be a reversal.
