2019 T1 W4

Technical Analysis


Figure 1: AUD/NZD Hourly Chart

This past week, AUDNZD, has been going on a rally starting from 1.03053. However it hit major resistance at 1.03600, which was also shown from 8th to the 11th March where breakout attempts failed causing long wicks from low buying pressure. Since then a descending triangle has been formed, which constantly tested the support level of 1.03364. The key level to look out for is 1.03364, due to an overbought stochastic RSI, it seems to be another attempt by the bears to test for 1.03364. Two possibilities could occur, if it holds the 1.03364 support level, an attempt to break the descending triangle is possible, which will continue the bullish rally. However if the support is broken, the next key support is 1.03204, if that support is breached a lower low will be formed which will start a bearish trend.


Figure 2: EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD had a strong week after bouncing off the 1.12 support level, which coincided with the support of the downwards channel. The MACD has formed a bullish crossover on the daily, however the stochastic beginning to look like it is forming a bearish crossover. Looking forward, the downwards channel is still valid until we break it, however as we close in on 1.12 which is a key area of support, it is quite possible that we will break above the channel in the next week or two. As you can see on the weekly chart, EUR/USD has been consolidating within the 1.12-1.15 range since November 2018, hence one possible scenario is that it will break this channel formation to the upside and start climbing back towards 1.15. Breaking below 1.12 would be a very bearish sign with 1.10 and 1.05 as potential targets.

Figure 3: EUR/USD Weekly Chart

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